Rugby League Rankings

ROUND 122008

A few home truths came out of Round 12 of the NRL this weekend.

One – unless the Titans can find a way to win on the road regularly – they can kiss their chances of a Minor Premiership goodbye and perhaps a Top 4 birth and a home final such is the logjam at the top of the ladder.

Two – the Bulldogs looked so far overmatched against the Storm in every department on Saturday night, so it is just as well they’ve signed the likes of Josh Morris, Michael Ennis, Ben Hannant and Brett Kimmorley for 2009 – because their current lineup has no chance of playing Finals football in 2008 and it would’ve been the same in 2009 if no changes were made.

Three – a number of harsh realities continue to plague the following clubs.
Souths – can’t score points with a hooker and a second rower as their starting halves (let alone their mistake rate when in an attacking position).
Canberra – are carrying too many average footballers across the park and their backrow is no match for almost every other club in the NRL in terms of attacking potency – and given the backrow has become a major attacking option in all the good teams in the NRL – Canberra can’t afford to go ‘safe’ and avoid picking players with line breaking or second phase ability.
Warriors – despite breaking their away record hoodoo by edging out the Knights in Newcastle on Saturday night, the Warriors are far too reliant on the cross kick to their wingers to create scoring opportunities in the attacking 20m zone – until they can run a decisive passing play regularly – teams won’t fear the Warriors attack until the final tackle of any set.

At the completion of every NRL Round in 2008, Rugby League Rankings analyses how your team is faring based on current form, recent opposition and a host of intangible factors that make a difference to where your team really ranks alongside the other 15 sides in the NRL. Even if the competition ladder suggests otherwise, this is the form guide you should consult before letting your obsession with your team cloud your judgement on how they’re really going in the race for the premiership.

Round 12, 2008 – Rugby League Rankings

1. Melbourne Storm (Last Week: 1 Difference: STEADY)
2008 Record: 8-3-0 Streak: Won 2 Last Round: Won 46-0 v Bulldogs (H)
Will suffer yet again from the NRL’s scheduling of the Origin Series on Wednesday nights – but there is one positive to take out of what will most likely be a defeat at the hands of the Gold Coast on Monday night – blooding youngsters into a side that usually doesn’t have room for multiple debutants is a good thing for the future of this club. Cooper Cronk is going that well that you could argue his form in the past month has surpassed that of Scott Prince in the battle to be the ‘next in line’ should Johnathan Thurston be injured come Origin III.
This Week: v Titans at Skilled Park.
Next Four: @ Titans, BYE, v Cowboys, @ Eels.

2. Sydney Roosters (Last Week: 2 Difference: STEADY)
2008 Record: 8-3-0 Streak: Won 4 Last Round: Won 19-10 v Tigers (H)
This is a good football team that could become great if they finish in the Top 4 and have everyone healthy and on deck come September. Anthony Minichiello’s return is a big boost this week as the Roosters travel to Brookvale and if Minichiello gets through the game unhurt – he could be the impetus for an upset against a Manly side that looks close to full strength outside of NSW fullback Brett Stewart. Had the Tigers measure on Monday night.
This Week: v Sea Eagles at Brookvale Oval.
Next Four: @ Sea Eagles, v Panthers, @ Knights, v Bulldogs.

3. Brisbane Broncos (Last Week: 4 Difference: UP 1)
2008 Record: 7-4-0 Streak: Won 1 Last Round: Won 30-26 v Eels (H)
How quickly people forgot that Darren Lockyer can do things that only a handful of players in the last 25 years could do – after being written off after his knee injury (and first serious injury of his career at age 30!) the masterful Lockyer goes out and makes the match winning play happen in the final second of the clash on Friday against the Eels. Special players should never be counted out and it is a shame Lockyer’s Origin duties will prevent him from lining up against another special player – Wendell Sailor. The Broncos will blood another few youngsters for the visit to Wollongong but their rep player drain is just too great to expect victory – but that’s not to say victory isn’t possible.
This Week: v Dragons at WIN Stadium.
Next Four: @ Dragons, @ Raiders, v Tigers, @ Panthers.

4. Gold Coast Titans (Last Week: 3 Difference: DOWN 1)
2008 Record: 7-4-0 Streak: Lost 2 Last Round: Lost 30-14 v Sharks (A)
Have no one to blame but themselves for not turning up mentally against the Sharks on Sunday and blew a golden opportunity to prove to the rest of the NRL that this team can win on the road facing strong opposition. Have now dropped two straight – both away from Skilled Park – and although only Anthony Laffranchi is missing for Origin II, Scott Prince and Luke Bailey were way down on their best and must get their groove back when the Storm’s Toyota Cup side visits this week.
This Week: v Storm at Skilled Park.
Next Four: v Storm, BYE, @ Rabbitohs, v Dragons.

5. Penrith Panthers (Last Week: 7 Difference: UP 2)
2008 Record: 6-4-0 Streak: Won 3 Last Round: Won 19-18 v Cowboys (A)
Ladies and gentlemen has Matt Elliott’s ‘compete at all costs’ message finally gotten through to the previously lazzae fair Panthers? The Daily Telegraph did their best anti-Brian Smith effort on Elliott at the start of the season but to his and his players’ credit – Penrith’s troops have believed in each other and are now at 6-4 well and truly entrenched in the lower half of the Top 8. Without a single player involved in Origin I or II – the Panthers have a golden opportunity to make it 4 wins in a row hosting the Sharks on Sunday.
This Week: v Sharks at CUA Stadium.
Next Four: v Sharks, @ Roosters, @ Dragons, v Broncos.

6. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (Last Week: 5 Difference: DOWN 1)
2008 Record: 7-4-0 Streak: Won 1 Last Round: Won 31-18 v Raiders (A)
Even with 12 men for more than half the game the Sea Eagles were still comfortably better than the Raiders in Canberra – it was a significant statement about the quality of the Manly defence to look fairly untroubled for the entire second half when fatigue was going to be a factor a man down. Have the toughest game of the shortened Origin affected Round as they host the Roosters on Sunday afternoon at Brookie.
This Week: v Roosters at Brookvale Oval.
Next Four: v Roosters, BYE, @ Warriors, v Knights.

7. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (Last Week: 8 Difference: UP 1)
2008 Record: 7-4-0 Streak: Won 1 Last Round: Won 30-14 v Titans (H)
It is slightly mystifying that the Sharks could play so poorly against the Bulldogs last Monday night when they really should’ve beaten an inferior side – yet Cronulla lifted themselves to more than match the then league-leading Titans on Sunday. With fullback Brett Kearney out a few weeks with injury the Sharks will be considerably short handed in terms of their top players with Greg Bird and Paul Gallen back on Origin duty for their clash with the streaking Panthers.
This Week: v Panthers at CUA Stadium.
Next Four: @ Panthers, v Warriors, v Eels, @ Raiders.

8. St.George-Illawarra Dragons (Last Week: 10 Difference: UP 2)
2008 Record: 5-6-0 Streak: Won 3 Last Round: Won 26-12 v Rabbitohs (A)
Beat the Rabbitohs – which would’ve been a stronger statement in 2007 than this season where South Sydney are a shadow of their former selves. Have toughened up defensively and are getting good field position from Jamie Soward’s long kicking game – two factors that have helped the team win their past three games and put themselves in a position to bring Wendell Sailor into a side that can start to entertain thoughts of matching it with the top teams this season.
This Week: v Broncos at WIN Stadium.
Next Four: v Broncos, BYE, v Panthers, @ Titans.

9. Wests Tigers (Last Week: 6 Difference: DOWN 3)
2008 Record: 6-5-0 Streak: Lost 1 Last Round: Lost 19-10 v Roosters (A)
Weren’t really allowed to push their way into the contest on Monday night against the Roosters and despite trying hard the Tigers couldn’t get over the Roosters physically and the conditions dulled their skill game’s effectiveness. Still the side is 6-5 and have the Cowboys at Campbelltown this Saturday night so their record should improve to 7-5 given how bad the North Queenslanders are going right now.
This Week: v Cowboys at Campbelltown Stadium.
Next Four: v Cowboys, v Eels, @ Broncos, v Warriors.

10. Newcastle Knights (Last Week: 9 Difference: DOWN 1)
2008 Record: 4-6-0 Streak: Lost 3 Last Round: Lost 18-16 v Warriors (H)
Held their spot in the Top 9 of the Power Rankings for a week too long as evidenced by the side’s inability to knock over an average Warriors team at home on Saturday night. Are probably fortunate they have the Bulldogs on the schedule this weekend because without Steve Simpson, Danny Buderus and Kurt Gidley – all Origin bound, the Knights would be big time outsiders. Adam MacDougall has turned back the clock in the past fortnight but can he stay healthy and give the Knights value for their investment in the xx year old.
This Week: v Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium.
Next Four: @ Bulldogs, @ Cowboys, v Roosters, @ Sea Eagles.

11. Parramatta Eels (Last Week: 14 Difference: UP 3)
2008 Record: 4-6-0 Streak: Lost 2 Last Round: Lost 30-26 v Broncos (A)
Did well to almost steal the game at Suncorp with two late tries that leveled the scores and seemingly had the game destined for Golden Point. Unfortunately for the Eels the Broncos had Darren Lockyer and he was truly the difference between the two sides when it mattered most. Coach Michael Hagan could take some positives from the last second loss but the team has reached the point in the season where they have to take advantage of their lack of State of Origin representation and win over the next month. Must beat the Raiders if they think they are going to be a factor in 2008.
This Week: v Raiders at Parramatta Stadium.
Next Four: v Raiders, @ Tigers, @ Sharks, v Storm.

12. Canberra Raiders (Last Week: 12 Difference: STEADY)
2008 Record: 4-6-0 Streak: Lost 1 Last Round: Lost 31-18 v Sea Eagles (H)
Just not good enough on Friday night to overcome the Sea Eagles despite playing a 12 man Manly side for the majority of the game. Canberra do have injury issues but the side they picked to play the Sea Eagles had almost zero firepower outside of Todd Carney (he’s not a halfback Neil Henry) and Joel Monaghan (who while damaging in attack had a shocking night defensively) and not a single forward who looked capable of worrying the excellent Manly defence. But be that as it may at 4-6 the side is still well and truly in playoff contention, with or without changes.
This Week: v Eels at Parramatta Stadium.
Next Four: @ Eels, v Broncos, @ Bulldogs, v Sharks.

13. Warriors (Last Week: 15 Difference: UP 2)
2008 Record: 5-6-0 Streak: Won 1 Last Round: Lost 18-16 v Knights (A)
Broke their away duck for the season with a gutsy 18-16 win in Newcastle but the team has some serious issues in attack with Grant Rovelli and new five-eighth Nathan Fien simply not looking creative in attack unless kicking the ball high or wide. The mandate under Coach Ivan Cleary seems to be so mistake-free based that the team doesn’t seem to want to take any risks by moving the ball quickly wide or executing set plays under pressure. As a result the team relies on kicks wide and high to create scoring opportunities or second phase play from offloads by their forwards. That basically means if you do make errors you never get into the field position required to execute the kicking option – and you don’t score points.
This Week: v Rabbitohs at Mt Smart Stadium.
Next Four: v Rabbitohs, @ Sharks, v Sea Eagles, @ Tigers.

14. North Queensland Cowboys (Last Week: 13 Difference: DOWN 1)
2008 Record: 3-8-0 Streak: Lost 5 Last Round: Lost 19-18 v Panthers (H)
The PR spin by the Cowboys when they successfully encouraged Graham Murray to depart as coach was simply – things can only get better. Well the Cowboys of 2008 have proven – things just won’t go to plan this season and the Golden Point loss to the Panthers and loss of Luke O’Donnell to likely suspension following his send off – proved things have just got worse. Johnathan Thurston’s form has been down but he’ll still be missed this week when the Cowboys try and end their 5 game losing streak away to the Tigers.
This Week: v Tigers at Campbelltown Stadium.
Next Four: @ Tigers, v Knights, @ Storm, v Rabbitohs.

15. Bulldogs (Last Week: 11 Difference: DOWN 4)
2008 Record: 4-7-0 Streak: Lost 1 Last Round: Lost 46-0 v Storm (A)
Stayed in their game against the Storm for longer than even they might’ve expected before a try-barrage saw Melbourne cross the strip 3 times in 5 minutes. From then on it was one way traffic as the undermanned and overmatched Bulldogs knew they couldn’t win the game and even limiting the hit their point differential was going to cop with a thrashing was going to be beyond them. Get a fortunate matchup with the Knights (who won’t have Buderus, Simpson or Gidley) so don’t write them off but the team needs a massive game from Ben Roberts in attack to worry Newcastle’s defence.
This Week: v Knights at ANZ Stadium.
Next Four: v Knights, BYE, v Raiders, @ Roosters.

16. South Sydney Rabbitohs (Last Week: 16 Difference: STEADY)
2008 Record: 1-10-0 Streak: Lost 3 Last Round: Lost 26-12 v Dragons (H)
The job ahead of John Lang… err Jason Taylor to get the Rabbitohs back to the winning ways of 2007 is a challenge that only the strong willed will carry out. By that I mean over the next month Lang’s influence on Taylor should permeate through to the team selections – which up to now have proved fruitless for Taylor – who has shown almost a blind faith in his key players from the 2007 playoff side – despite their form being sub standard. David Kidwell (who admittedly had his best game in over a year against the Dragons – but that isn’t saying an awful lot) is past his used by date as an enforcer and the club has to look to limiting his minutes to get something fresh into their backrow – perhaps shifting Michael Greenfield to the second row and capitalising on his second phase play ability. Something drastic has to happen – especially if the halves combo of George Ndaiara/Issac Luke and Dean Widders continues in the top grade.
This Week: v Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium.
Next Four: @ Warriors, BYE, v Titans, @ Cowboys.

For the record last week’s Power Rankings were as follows:
ROUND 112008